Kiara A. Hernández

Research

Peer-Reviewed Publications

• Hernandez, Kiara A., Taeku Lee, and Marcel Roman. 2025. "White Power! How White Status Threat Undercuts Backlash Against Anti-democratic Politicians." Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics.
  Abstract (click to expand)

  Prior research shows that the pro-Trump, anti-democratic January 6th insurrection (J6) led to a short-term reduction in Republican support for President Trump. However, it remains unclear why the anti-Trump backlash occurred among his electoral base. We theorize that white Republicans concerned about the declining status of Anglo whites in the American ethno-racial hierarchy were the least likely to backlash against Trump after J6. Leveraging an unexpected-event-during-survey design (UESD) and a large survey fielded shortly before and after J6, we find no difference in support for Trump due to J6 among white Republicans who strongly perceived anti-white discrimination (Study 1). We replicate this result with another UESD with a separate survey fielded during J6 (Study 2) and a difference-in-differences approach with additional panel surveys fielded around J6 (Study 3). Moreover, across four cross-sectional surveys, we find the negative relationship between J6 disapproval and Trump support post-J6 between 2021 and 2024 is attenuated among status-threatened white Republicans (Studies 4–7). Our evidence suggests racial status threat undercuts the ability of the white Republican mass public to hold co-partisan anti-democratic elites accountable for norm violations.

Working Papers

• Fracture Without Failure: The Politics of Collective Action in Diverse Workplaces (Under Review)
  • Honorable Mention for Best Paper, Class and Inequality Section, American Political Science Association
  • Nominated for Dorothy Day Award for Outstanding Labor Research, American Political Science Association
  Abstract (click to expand)

  How do diverse societies achieve shared political goals despite intergroup divisions? Attempts to overcome diversity's challenges for collective action often focus on improving attitudes through contact, yet cooperation also depends on strategic relations. I examine this question using U.S. service-sector labor union organizing campaigns, a high-stakes political process in which interaction across diverse workers on shared shifts is routine and observable. Using a national survey of hourly workers and administrative campaign records, I find that diversity is associated with uncertainty and disagreement about union support that sustained contact does not resolve. Evidence from a pre-registered experiment shows that diversity causes more risk-averse strategic behavior, and that this relationship is not mediated by interpersonal attitudes. I conclude that contact targets interpersonal attitudes without sufficiently reducing perceptions of strategic risk. At the same time, diversity is not associated with closer union election margins, suggesting that institutional structures may help workers overcome coordination problems and inviting further study.

• The Effect of Localized Exposure to Inequality on Preferences for Redistribution: Evidence from a Large Hospital Strike (with Ryan D. Enos)
  Abstract (click to expand)

  Mass labor strikes can make inequality locally visible. When they unfold in discrete geographic locations, they expose surrounding communities to conflicts over pay and working conditions that are often otherwise diffuse or obscured. But does such localized exposure mobilize political participation? While prior research finds strikes can shift public attitudes toward organized labor, evidence on downstream electoral effects remains limited. We examine the 2021–2022 Saint Vincent Hospital nurses' strike in Worcester, Massachusetts, the longest nurses' strike in state history at 301 days, to test whether prolonged, highly visible labor conflict increases voter turnout, registration, and voting on a redistributive ballot measure among nearby residents. Using individual-level voter file data and a difference-in-differences design comparing midterm elections (2022 vs. 2018), we find no evidence that the strike increased turnout among existing voters living near the hospital, and similarly was not associated with support for the ballot measure. However, we document an increase in new voter registrations: the share of registrations from within one mile of the hospital was 3.1 percentage points higher in 2022 than in 2018 (p < 0.001), an increase that is robust to demographic controls and absent in placebo comparisons. This registration increase emerged after a July 2021 service cutback plausibly made the strike's disruption tangible for those in the surrounding community. These findings suggest that strikes may expand the electorate by drawing new participants into the political system, particularly after visible disruption, even when they fail to activate existing voters or influence downstream vote choice.

• Do All Partisans Sort? Evidence from the American Service Sector Workforce (with Daniel Schneider)
  Abstract (click to expand)

  Existing research has documented the effects of partisan segregation for contact between groups, discriminatory behavior and local political participation in the US. However, previous work has almost exclusively focused on partisan segregation in residential settings. We argue that workplaces may hold independent explanatory power in the study of sorting based on political preferences and identity. In this paper, we investigate the effects that coworker and worker-firm (management) ideological misalignment separately have on workers' decisions to exit ideologically incompatible jobs. Then, we compare the effects of partisan sorting on intentions to transition out of jobs to material drivers of turnover. We find no evidence of the potential for sorting by ideology for workers in our sample. Ideological misalignment with coworkers and management at the firm-level is not associated with workers' intentions to exit jobs at baseline. Instead, the workers in our sample appear motivated by material job amenities, such as benefits and stable scheduling practices. By focusing on a large but understudied segment of the American workforce — low-wage service sector workers — we bring attention to the way that partisan sorting through work may operate for workers with different levels of market power. Our findings advance research on the drivers of partisan sorting and contribute to a nascent agenda focused on better understanding the effects of work on Americans' political behavior.

Selected Ongoing Research

• Spontaneous Organizing Activity in an Era of Weak Unions
• Policy Rollback Without Repeal: The Politics of Labor-Based Immigration Relief Under Administrative Uncertainty
• Drawing Blanks: Redistricting and Turnout Effects (with Jeremiah Cha and Angelo Dagonel)

Teaching

I have taught classes on race in American politics, political behavior, inequality, and data science. I also have experience advising undergraduate senior theses in American politics.

Harvard University

• Head Instructor, Gov 97 Sophomore Tutorial, Spring 2025
  • Seminar title: Intergroup Cleavages and the Politics of Inequality
• Teaching Fellow, Gov 1372 Political Psychology, Fall 2023
  • A data-driven undergraduate course that seeks to understand how psychology shapes mass political behavior.
  • TF for intermediate and data science-track students.
• Teaching Fellow, GenEd 1052/GOVT E-1555 Race in a Polarized America, Spring 2023
  • A survey-style undergraduate course on the role of race in American political development and contemporary politics.
• Teaching Fellow, Gov 1347 Election Analytics, Fall 2022
  • An advanced, data-driven undergraduate course on U.S. election forecast modeling.
  • Designed for students on the Data Science concentration track.

Curriculum Vitae

Download my full C.V. here.